Monday, January 2, 2012

An odds start for the new year

What's going to happen in 2012? I like odds better than predictions, because future events are inherently uncertain. Here are the odds I would give on events in 2012, if I were a betting man. Add yours in the comments.

(Odds are of the form against-for, e.g. 10-1 is 10 to 1 against, 1-10 is 10 to 1 for. Rely on them at your own risk.)

Canadian Research and Universities
  1. NSERC budget cut: 1-2
  2. NSERC budget increased more than 5%: 10-1
  3. Canadian wins Nobel prize: 5-1
Science and Technology
  1. P=NP? solved: 1000000-1
  2. Faster-than-light neutrino result debunked: 1-10
  3. Higgs boson found: 1-20
  4. D-Wave One is accepted by Aaronson as a quantum computer: 10000-1
  5. DIDO is implemented in a commercial product: 100-1
    • ... and has the claimed performance: 100000-1
York University
  1. CUPE 3903 strike: 4-1
  2. YUFA strike: 8-1
Canadian Wireless Industry
  1. RIM acquired: 1-1
    • RIM acquired by Microsoft: 2-1
    • RIM acquired by Nokia: 5-1
    • RIM acquired by Amazon: 10-1
  2. RIM shares end year (or sold for) above $20: 1-1
    • ... or below $10: 2-1
  3. Both Mobilicity and Public Mobile acquired: 1-5 
    • Mobilicity acquired by Globalive: 1-1
    • Public Mobile acquired by Bell or Rogers: 2-1
  4. Two of the big three (Telus, Bell, Rogers) announce merger: 10-1
    • ... and the merger is permitted by regulators: 20-1
Toronto and Canada
  1. Leafs make the playoffs: 2-1
  2. Leafs win the Stanley Cup: 100-1
  3. Next leader of the NDP is Brian Topp 1-1
    • ... Thomas Mulcair: 3-1
  4. Next leader of the Liberal party is Bob Rae 2-1
    • ... Justin Trudeau 5-1

1 comment:

Jason Furlong said...

RIM acquired by Google 8 - 1
End of the World 1000000 - 1(as predicted by ancient Mayans)